TL;DR Breakdown
- Bitcoin starts the week at $30,270 with a slight 1.27% loss fuelled by the negative crypto weekend effect.
- The week anticipates United States data prints, which will follow commentary by Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, over two days on June 28–29.
- June 30 will see the release of the latest U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index figures.
- Bitcoin Fear and Greed index falls to 55. What direction will the market take this week?
Description
The crypto industry has normally had negative weekend effects, but Bitcoin has lived through the period with grace. Now, Bitcoin starts a new week in a solid position above $30,000 after its latest rapid gains. According to CoinMarketCap, the price of BTC today sits at $30,270. The leading coin has a 24-hour trading volume of … Read more
The crypto industry has normally had negative weekend effects, but Bitcoin has lived through the period with grace. Now, Bitcoin starts a new week in a solid position above $30,000 after its latest rapid gains. According to CoinMarketCap, the price of BTC today sits at $30,270. The leading coin has a 24-hour trading volume of $13,839,674,371. On-Chain data shows that BTC is down 1.27% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin fundamentals fumble
After weeks of sluggish trade, BTC price action has continued to deliver on bulls’ predictions. But can it go on? This is the question on everyone’s lips this week. $30,000 held through the weekly closing and beyond, but anything can and does happen in a volatile crypto market. Critics believe this is a fool’s errand, while crypto investors see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Japan’s recent amendment to exclude from taxation unrealized gains of self-issued crypto fosters a healthy environment for crypto entrepreneurs. This ongoing trend of regulatory flexibility has been lauded by stakeholders.
The macroeconomic environment is rather “standard” for the final week of June, with some potential risk asset price catalysts but no huge data releases at the same time. The weekend’s news out of Russia appears to have had minimal impact on market performance elsewhere, having essentially completed prior to the start of trading this week.
In terms of Bitcoin, a period of stocktaking appears to be underway, with fundamentals poised to fall from all-time highs. The sentiment is also volatile, with $30,000 being a critical level.
BTC bulls turn up for the market, giving a good start
As the week begins, Bitcoin and Ether are both off to a strong start. According to data compiled by CoinGlass, BTC/USD posted its third-best weekly performance of 2023 last week, gaining 15.6% overall. Rekt Capital, a trader and analyst, characterized the broader Bitcoin price correction as “over” and noted renewed flows into alternative cryptocurrencies.
Michal van de Poppe, founder, and CEO of trading firm Eight, had his eye on the potential reclaim of the 200-week moving average for the entire crypto market.
This mini-bull market, which has followed multiple applications for spot bitcoin ETFs, has pushed BTC and ETH to some of their strongest weekly gains since March, according to analysts. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has not indicated when it will announce a decision regarding the bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offered by BlackRock, Invesco, and WisdomTree.
Jerome Powell’s FED highlights a “huge” macro week
The week will be dominated by two significant economic events, namely the release of United States economic data, which will be followed by remarks from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.
Powell will hold two days of “discussions” on the economy on June 28–29, while the latest U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index figures will be released on June 30.
Powell has previously stated that these are the Fed’s preferable metric for measuring inflation trends, with a number that exceeds expectations having the potential to influence its next interest rate decision.
As of June 26, the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated that the probability of a rate hike in July was greater than 70%.
Bitcoin mining hits new hard levels
Bitcoin network fundamentals are slowing their own gains in an intriguing if likely transient, contrast to the BTC price’s strength. According to BTC.com’s most recent projections, the Bitcoin network’s difficulty will decrease on June 29 during its upcoming readjustment.
This will be the first downward adjustment since the beginning of May, but it is anticipated to be the second-largest of 2023 at approximately -2.5%.
The mining company Simple Mining describes the combination of accelerating spot price and declining difficulty as “miners’ two favorite things.” However, the change is modest in the historical context.
The Bitcoin RHODL ratio is indicative of a “new breakout”
Bitcoin is at the beginning of a “new speculation cycle,” according to market analysts. In his most recent study of Bitcoin’s RHODL ratio metric, an analyst argued that the BTC supply is transitioning from a hodler-based to a speculative asset.
While complex on paper, the RHODL ratio serves as a useful tool for Bitcoin price cycles and is currently exhibiting the anticipated behavior at the beginning of bull markets.
At the end of 2022, long-term holders dominated the market, but now opportunistic traders have re-entered, indicating a transition to broader mainstream trading interest.
What sentiment will crypto hold this week?
In recent days, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, has fluctuated significantly as BTC/USD endeavors to create new support. After reaching a high of 65/100 on June 22, the Index has lost 10 points and is trending toward “neutral” territory as the momentum of the current price declines.
The index is a lagging indicator, but it demonstrates how sensitive the market is to current price action, not just for BTC but also for ETH, which is attempting to convert $2,000 to support. Popular traders cautioned against longing until clearer signals were given based on sentiment data.
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